Offseason evaluation: A.J. Hoggard back for more after first season as Michigan State’s starting PG

Michigan State Spartans guard A.J. Hoggard (11) tries to call a play to his teammates during an NCAA college basketball game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Michigan Wolverines at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023. Michigan State Spartans won with a final score of 59-53. (Zachary Clingenpeel | MLive.com)Zachary Clingenpeel | [email protected]

Note: This is the seventh in a series of stories evaluating returning players on Michigan State's 2023-24 roster. Previously: Carson Cooper, Malik Hall, Tre Holloman, Jaxon Kohler, Mady Sissoko, Tyson Walker.

EAST LANSING – Michigan State has its offensive leader back for its most anticipated season in years.

A.J. Hoggard will return to East Lansing in 2023-24 for his senior season, he announced last week, after going through the NBA Draft process this spring.

He’ll look to continue his upward trajectory and iron out some of the bumps along the way as he returns to Michigan State's starting point guard role this fall.

THE BASICS: Hoggard averaged 12.9 points per game while shooting 41.7 percent from the floor and 32.9 percent on 3-pointers. He had 201 assists (5.9) per game against 88 turnovers and shot 80.4 percent from the free throw line.

QUOTE OF NOTE: "What I love about A.J. Hoggard is he is like me. He's stubborn, he's a fistfighter, he's tougher than nails." – Tom Izzo, March 14

BEST PERFORMANCE OF 2022-23: Hoggard didn't miss much when Indiana came to the Breslin Center on Feb. 21. He shot 7-for-9 from the field and 7-for-8 from the free throw line and added five assists go with his 22 points in one of Michigan State's best wins of the season.

THE GOOD: Hoggard did one thing far better than any other Spartans guard last season: get to the rim. He took significantly more shots at the rim (139) than any other player on the roster and had the best free-throw rate among non-centers. Not only did that make for efficient offense for Hoggard, it helped create space for perimeter shooters --- who Hoggard was adept at finding with inside-out passes for open shots.

Thirty-two percent from 3 won't have him labeled as a sharpshooter anytime soon, but it was a significant jump up from the 21.9 percent he shot as a sophomore. Significantly, it was good enough that teams had to defend him out to the 3-point line for the first time in his career, which benefitted both his offense and the team overall.

But the bigger jump, in terms of shooting percentage, was at the free-throw line. Hoggard went from 63 percent to 80 in the span of a year. Again, the benefits were twofold: he made many more of the significant number of free throw attempts he took. But just as important: he was able to be on the court in crunch time of every game for the Spartans. As a sophomore, he often had to watch late-game situations from the bench due to free throw concerns.

THE BAD: Hoggard's seasons continue to be a roller coaster ride. He got benched early Northwestern in December after some shaky early play, then dropped 23 in a huge win at Penn State three days later. He went 1-for-6 in a loss at Iowa in February, then recorded 14 assists later that week against Nebraska. He had a dud in the Big Ten tournament against Ohio State, then responded with a strong NCAA Tournament.

At one point, Izzo suggested that his point guard was having an out of body experience. While Hoggard had more good performances than poor ones, it was difficult to know what to expect night-in and night-out – a particularly vexing problem for a team's point guard.

Hoggard also wasn't able to keep up the assist pace from his sophomore season (although that would have been tough, as he led the country in the category), as his numbers there took a slight dip.

THE ODD: It wouldn't be a Michigan State season without an Izzo-player interaction making the rounds online and stirring up some outrage. This year Hoggard was the player in question, as Izzo animatedly spoke to him during a Big Ten tournament game against Ohio State and Hoggard sat on the bench with a strange, far-off look on his face. As usual, everyone involved quickly moved on, but it was an odd scene nonetheless.

REASONED PERSPECTIVE: His junior season was another step in a steady three-year progression for Hoggard.

His turnovers have dropped every year while all of his shooting numbers have gone up each year, along with his offensive rating.

After two seasons of starting off-and-on Hoggard was the no-doubt day-one starter for Michigan State this year and rose to the role. Plenty of others played key roles in this, but Hoggard led an offense that was the team's best since Cassius Winston ran the point.

Consistency remains elusive, and Hoggard still has perplexing stretches of play. But while the line of his progress hasn't exactly been linear, it's undoubtedly trending upward.

ASSESS AND GUESS IN 2023-24: Hoggard will be the one steering the ship in a Michigan State season of great expectations.

He’ll return as one of the better point guards in the Big Ten after earning honorable mention all-conference honors last year. Who plays the other point guard minutes will be more of a question, with Jeremy Fears Jr. and Tre Holloman both competing for backup minutes. But it's hard to imagine either of them taking any significant minutes from Hoggard if he can continue his upward trajectory.

Because Hoggard will be a commodity that is extremely valuable in college basketball today: a senior returning starting point guard. Michigan State will hope he's the type of player that can lead it back to a Final Four.

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